The industry is currently locked in an epic war of speculation. Will a device most have never used be great, or terrible. Will it sell like iPods or set the world damp like the AppleTV? The answer is we don’t know yet. It’s never stupid to place your chips on Steve Jobs, but he’s not infallible.

However, most of what the industry (blogosphere?) is saying is wrong. I thought it would be worth running down what things won’t stop it being a success.

No Multitasking, won’t kill the iPad

There are two perspectives on multi-tasking. The nerds and the user’s. The nerd knows what it means in detail, but in the end, it’s the user’s perception and experience that matters. So from the user’s perspective what does multi-tasking bring? For the majority of cases it means you can switch between applications quickly, and when you do return to an application it’s in the same state it was when you switched away from it. There are a few things operating systems provide the around the edges such as notifications (the flashing title bar in Windows, the bouncing dock icon in Mac OS, and the thing in Linux I can’t remember). There’s one other characteristic, you can leave a long running task in the background, able to work on other things whilst it does whatever it is it does (downloads are a common example for the everyday user).

Thing thing is, whilst the purist nerd (I’m one of them, and very proud of it) knows that the iPad is doing some limited multi-tasking and it offers no interface for other apps to do so, the iPad provides almost all of those patterns to its users. I can download a pod-cast whilst I’m browsing, and if I switch to the iTunes store to check it’s status and then return to Safari… it’s in the same state I left it. Facebook says “boing” when I get a message wether or not I’m running the app…

In short, in just about every way that matters… the iPad (and indeed the iPhone) do multi-task. I know it’s not the same as it is on a desktop OS, but it’s close enough that it doesn’t matter.

The way that apple is able to exploit that focus it can give to the A4 and deliver a flawless performance for the thing you are currently doing… well… that’s what makes the damn thing look so good.

The Absence of Flash, won’t kill the iPad

Flash is an important and popular technology. I don’t love proprietary, we’ve not yet broken free of what IE did to the Internet, but Flash fills an gap that is only just being plugged by standards. The internet would not have moved forward in the way it has without it.

However, move on it has. I don’t think not being able to play Flash games will hurt the iPad. Why not? Because I have 3 kids in the 8-15 range and they adore the iPhone. I’ve asked them if they miss playing the flash games… and they answer “I did, but the App Store is awesome”.

Youtube and Vimeo are busy looking for other solutions and testing out HTML5 playback as we speak. Anyhow, youtube, there’s an app for that.

Think about one of the best RIA experiences out there. Google Maps. No Flash.

This is a non-issue, and it doesn’t matter.

Only having 10 hours to read a book, won’t kill the iPad

I’ve heard a lot of criticism about the battery life, and indeed the screen, when it comes to reading books. Personally, I don’t think it matters. If I ever get 10 hours to read… I’m near a power-socket. In fact, 10 hours is pretty much guaranteed to bring me near to a power-socket. I still think eInk is a better reading experience than an illuminated screen (OLED or otherwise), but then again, I still think a book is a better reading experience than eInk. However, I can’t carry 100 books with me all the time, and in the end, I don’t want to carry 5 devices around with me either. So I’ll have an iPad and an iPhone and if I want to read for a couple of hours whilst I’m not near my library, the iPad will do just fine (as would the Kindle, I’m just saying I don’t think people are really going to carry a kindle just to read). In the end, even with their SDK, the range of things a Kindle can do is currently too limited. The iPad will be used to read books not because it’s the best reading experience, but because of all of the other things it does that made you put it in your bag in the first place.

OK Smart Ass, What will Kill the iPad?

Short answer, I don’t know. There are things that are “missing” for me (camera, proper GPS) but none of them REALLY bother me. Perhaps they will bother others, but I find it hard to imagine. Until very recently getting a Laptop with an integrated camera was unusual, I should think most can live until r2 if needed. I think they’ve got a real hit on their hands, but if something does turn out to kill the iPad. It won’t be anything anybody has flagged up yet.